In a Mar. 9 campaign rally in Rome, Georgia, 2024 Republican frontrunner and former President Donald Trump claimed nearly one million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared “in February alone.”

Verdict: False

Multiple experts and data indicate the number Trump referenced during his speech is incorrect. It appears that 500,000 native-born Americans lost their jobs between January and February 2024, not one million, though experts cautioned against drawing a wider conclusion from a month’s worth of data.

Fact Check:

During a Mar. 9 rally, Trump claimed nearly one million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared “in February alone.”

“In February alone, nearly 1 million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared. Think of that. You lost a million jobs,” Trump claimed.

This claim is false, according to experts and data.  Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) available via the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank website indicates the employment level for native-born workers was 129,313,000 in February 2024 compared to 129,807,000 in January 2024, which is a loss of 497,000, not one million.

Likewise, the employment level for foreign-born workers was 31,002,000 in February 2024 compared to 29,842,000 in January 2024, according to another set of FRED data available via the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s website. Both sets of data, originally sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), are up-to-date as of Mar. 8 and are not seasonally adjusted.

A third set of FRED data available via the St. Louis Fed’s website places the overall employment level at 160,968,000 for February 2024 compared to 161,152,000 in January 2024. The data is derived from the Current Population Survey (Household Survey) and focuses on the civilian non-institutional population, or “persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.”

While this data is also originally sourced from the BLS and is up-to-date as of Mar. 8, it is seasonally adjusted.

A spokesperson for the BLS directed Check Your Fact to BLS data examining employment status among both native- and foreign-born workers places the employment rate for foreign-born workers at 63.5% (or 31,002,000 persons) as of February 2024, the same rate (representing 29,518,000 persons) noted in February 2023. Similarly, the data places the employment rate for native-born workers at 59.1% (or 129,313,000 persons) as of February 2024 compared to 59.3% (or 130,194,000) in February 2023, which would be a loss of around 880,000 jobs.  (RELATED: Instagram Video Makes Claim About Trump, Patton, MSNBC)

Alternatively, the same data from the BLS shows an unemployment rate of 4.7% (or 1,519,000 persons) for foreign-born workers 16 years old and over in February 2024 compared to an unemployment rate of 4.2% (or 1,309,000 persons) for the same group in February 2023. According to the same BLS data, the unemployment rate for native-born workers was 4.0% (or 5,451,000 persons) in February 2024 compared to 3.8% (or 5,157,000 persons) in February 2023.

Furthermore, the number of foreign-born workers who are not in the labor force as of February 2024 is 16,289,000 (compared to 15,643,000 in February 2023) and the number of native-born workers who are not in the labor force as of February 2024 is 84,137,000 (compared to 84,291,000 in February 2023). None of this data is seasonally adjusted.

Experts told Check Your Fact that Trump was incorrect.

Jai Kedia, a research fellow who studies monetary economics and macro-finance at the libertarian Cato Institute, said the number Trump referenced during his Mar. 9 rally is “incorrect.”

“The cited number is incorrect. Data from the BLS shows that 129.8 million native born persons were employed in the U.S. in January 2024. This number fell to 129.3 million in Feb 2024. That’s a loss of half a million jobs for native born Americans—not ‘nearly one million jobs’ as President Trump claims,” Kedia told Check Your Fact via email.

“While any loss of jobs for any persons, native or foreign born, is troubling and unwanted, it is important to exercise caution in drawing conclusions about labor market activity from recent monthly labor statistics. These numbers are the subject of frequent revisions and only longer-term employment statistics should be used for such analyses. Also, the point of President Trump’s quote was to highlight the effects of immigration on domestic employment. Such an analysis must necessarily account for the nuanced interaction between immigrant and domestic workers. Serious studies of immigration and its effects on domestic employment, such as those conducted by my Cato colleagues, have found no evidence of immigrants ‘taking’ domestic jobs,” he explained.

“The statement reports a highly exaggerated number, and the smaller number comes from a non-seasonally-adjusted data series – jobs usually fall in February as temporary seasonal work ends. The big picture is that both U.S.-born workers and foreign-born workers are seeing a lot of employment opportunity right now,” Watson said.

Dr. Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor and immigration and labor markets expert at the University of North Florida, said she is “not aware” of any evidence to support Trump’s claim.

“There is no evidence that I am aware of to support the claim that ‘in February alone, nearly 1 million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared.'”

“In February 2024, the U.S. added 275,000 non-farm jobs. The number of employed US natives, age 16 plus, in not seasonally adjusted data was 129.313 million in February 2024. In January 2024, the number of employed US natives, age 16 plus, in not seasonally adjusted data was 129.807 million.”

“A naïve calculation might therefore be that there were 494,000 fewer native-born employed in February than in January, or about half of the number claimed. However, economists are wary of making month-to-month comparisons of data that are not seasonally adjusted since we know there are regular seasonal patterns in the data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is independent of partisan political influence, has never put out seasonally adjusted monthly data on employment by nativity, as far as I know, so we cannot assess the validity of the claim,” Zavodny explained.

“Economists also would be wary of the naïve comparison since the native-born population is aging. The same data source shows that the age 16 and older native-born population fell from 219.996 million in January 2024 to 218.901 million in February 2024, again on a not seasonally adjusted basis. So any drop in native-born employment might reflect retirements and deaths as well as job losses.”

“Indeed, the native-born labor force fell from 135.184 in January 2024 to 134.764 in February 2024, again on a not seasonally adjusted basis. So the native-born labor force fell by 420,000, suggesting that much of the drop in employment may have been retirements or deaths rather than job losses.”

“Consistent with that, the number of unemployed native-born rose from 5.376 in January 2024 to 5.451 in February 2024, again on a not seasonally adjusted basis. So the number of unemployed native-born increased by 75,000 on a not-seasonally adjusted basis. In short, the data could be interpreted to indicate that 75,000 native-born lost their jobs in February, but economists would be reluctant to put much weight on data that are not seasonally adjusted,” she added.

Laurence Benenson, Vice President of Policy and Advocacy at America is Better, the (c)4 affiliate of the National Immigration Forum, said Trump’s claim is “false.”

“Former President Trump’s statement that ‘in February alone, nearly 1 million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared’ is false. If a million Americans suddenly lost their jobs in a single month, we’d hear a lot about it. It would have major impacts on the unemployment rate and the economy as a whole. This did not happen,” Benenson said.

“The unemployment rate remains below 4%, as it has for two years running, reflecting a strong job market. Many key sectors continue to experience labor shortages — effectively the opposite of what Trump said,” Benenson added.

“Trump appears to be referring to Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing declines in the number of native-born Americans in the workforce between February 2023 and February 2024 (130.2 million to 129.3 million, a decline of less than 0.7%) and between January 2024 and February 2024 (129.8 million to 129.3 million, a decline of less than 0.4%). But these statistics do not mean that native-born immigrants lost jobs to immigrants. Monthly job numbers reflect various seasonal and demographic adjustments. There’s also noise in the numbers — one shouldn’t overinterpret small changes in one month of data.”

PolitiFact also labeled Trump’s claim as false in a Mar. 12 article, stating that the U.S. had lost 184,000 jobs as of February 2024. The outlet cited the FRED employment level data available via the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s website to support its claim. Watson directed Check Your Fact to the PolitiFact article.

Check Your Fact has also contacted a Trump spokesperson for comment and will update this piece accordingly if one is received.